En god og en dårlig nyhet: Om DNAs effekt på oppklaringsprosenten i vinningssaker

Abstract

The expansion of the Norwegian DNA database in 2008, the so called «DNA reform», was founded on the belief that DNA increases the detection rate of volume crime significantly. We have conducted a study of Norwegian police registers to see what effects DNA actually has on detection rates in volume crime. The good news is that there is little doubt that DNA affects the detection rate. The overall detection rate for the criminal offenses we have studied in our selected police districts in the selected period was 8 %. In cases with a DNA profile the detection rate was 44 %. In cases with hits against the DNA identity register the detection rate was 81%, and in cases with hits against the DNA investigation register the detection rate was 62 %. However, the bad news is the very low proportion of cases where police gather biological samples which result in a DNA-profile and hits. This implies that no matter how high the detection rate is in cases with DNA profile, it will not affect the overall detection rate.